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Thread: Keeper Help

  1. #1
    King Nitbag Hall of Famer Doctego's Avatar
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    Keeper Help

    It's that time again. Finished first in the regular season and draft last. We can keep as many players as we want, but can't go over 15 "keeper points" with our keepers. Goalies cost 5 KP, forwards cost 3 KP, D cost 2 KP, and prospects (less than 100 games played) cost 1 KP. I'm thinking that Marner, Karlsson, and Burns are definites. That's 5 KP. That would leave me with 3 forwards to keep out of Ovechkin, Panarin, Forsberg, and Seguin. Am I crazy to consider trading Ovechkin? If I can decide on 3 forwards, I can keep Point, putting me right at 15 KP. I could also trade a D and keep 4 forwards, but I love having 2 defensemen that score at a forward level.

    Ryan O'Reilly Buf - C,LW
    Derek Stepan NYR - C
    Alex Ovechkin Was - LW
    Evander Kane Buf - LW
    Mitchell Marner Tor - C,RW
    Gustav Nyquist Det - LW,RW
    Nick Leddy NYI - D
    Matt Niskanen Was - D
    Sami Vatanen Anh - D
    Jake Dotchin TB - D
    Brayden Point TB - C,RW
    Brent Burns SJ - D
    Jordan Eberle Edm - RW
    Artemi Panarin Chi - LW
    Filip Forsberg Nsh - LW
    Tyler Seguin Dal - C,RW
    Erik Karlsson Ott - D

    Tuukka Rask Bos - G
    Devan Dubnyk Min - G


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    Geek Extraordinaire Hall of Famer Hamsterkill's Avatar
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    By all means, trade Ovechkin if you can. His role in Washington's offense should only decrease from here.

    I'm also not against trading Burns, since I don't think his value will ever be higher than it is now. I'm not sure what kind of upgrade could be found from Burns, though. He should regress some next season (I think), but he should still be really valuable for another year or two.
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  3. #3
    King Nitbag Hall of Famer Doctego's Avatar
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    If I'm not able to make any deals, who would you keep?


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    Geek Extraordinaire Hall of Famer Hamsterkill's Avatar
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    To me it would come down to Ovechkin vs Panarin. With Panarin moving to Columbus (and Torts), I'm inclined to say Ovechkin is the safer play for next year. It's a close call, though. I'm assuming goalies are easy to draft if you're not considering keeping either of yours.
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  5. #5
    King Nitbag Hall of Famer Doctego's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hamsterkill View Post
    To me it would come down to Ovechkin vs Panarin. With Panarin moving to Columbus (and Torts), I'm inclined to say Ovechkin is the safer play for next year. It's a close call, though. I'm assuming goalies are easy to draft if you're not considering keeping either of yours.
    I stepped in shit for most of the season by being able to draft Rask and Dubnyk while drafting 12th (out of 12). Goalies are typically available due to the high cost of keeping them. You like Panarin over Forsberg? Before the trade, I definitely did. Now, it's a lot closer for me.


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    Geek Extraordinaire Hall of Famer Hamsterkill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctego View Post
    I stepped in shit for most of the season by being able to draft Rask and Dubnyk while drafting 12th (out of 12). Goalies are typically available due to the high cost of keeping them. You like Panarin over Forsberg? Before the trade, I definitely did. Now, it's a lot closer for me.
    No, I would prefer Forsberg over Panarin, unless Columbus adds something surprising in free agency. Even if Torts doesn't hurt his production much the drop in talent on his line will.
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  7. #7
    King Nitbag Hall of Famer Doctego's Avatar
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    I made 2 trades, with the following as my updated keepers:

    Artemi Panarin - 3 KP
    Filip Forsberg Nsh - 3 KP
    Tyler Seguin Dal - 3 KP
    Erik Karlsson - 2 KP
    Brent Burns - 2 KP
    Mitchell Marner - 1 KP
    Matthew Tkachuk - 1 KP

    I traded Ovechkin and Point (he had room for a rookie keeper) for a 3rd rounder and traded a 7th rounder for Tkachuk. I think that I made out well. Got younger and improved my rookie keepers, netting a better draft pick in the process. Time will tell if Ovechkin has another run in him. Hated to see him go.


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    My bad Doc! Better late than never I suppose. Been a crazy week.

    Getting rid of Ovy was definitely the right move. If you were an odds maker, you'd call it well below 25% that he produces like an offensive star again. Nothing promising to bank on at all going forward.

    Karlsson and Burns and Marner are obvious definite keepers.

    I'm less than excited about Panarins future but I also don't think you have much of a choice. He certainly can't be downgraded before Eberle, or really even below Forsberg. It becomes Eberle vs Forsberg and I think Forsberg wins that one.

    Unfortunately there's not a whole lot of theorizing to be done here. I say unfortunate because we all know we love having difficult decisions to make in fantasy. Gets us through the day.

    But by not a lot of theorizing i mean there's really not a lot to consider here. If goalies cost 4 instead of 3 I'd say for sure drop Forsberg+Tkachuck and keep Rask but at 5 kp? You have to lose Marner as well, or keep Marner+Tkachuck and lose one of the 2 best D-men in fantasy hockey. Definitely no chances of that being an option.

    Obviously, this is after your recent deals. Before those deals, there was much more to talk about. Now, you've wisely clarified the situation with good deals that took assets you were going to lose and turned them into valuable picks later. Now, the only possible deviation you could make is replacing Forsberg with Eberle. But you lose goals and shots to gain powerplay points and a likely higher ceiling. I call Eberle the higher ceiling because Forsberg is stuck in a system that doesn't encourage stats. Forsberg is the safer play, 30 goals beats 20.


    I'm mostly just pushing drama though, Forsberg is a bit of an obvious pick over Eberle, especially with Eberle's ice time and production falling since McDavid joined. Clearly Eberle has blown his chance to join McDavid for the statistical ride.

    Overall your forwards don't impress me but provide a fantastic safe floor, like an NFL RB you know is giving you 1000/10 that year, never hurts to stuff your team with 3 of those guys and just take your 10 pts every week from your RBs. Your flash comes from your D-men and you have the almost certain top 2 scorers next year. That's what pushes your team over the top. Marner has to be the top rookie keeper to own right now too. He will be a great replacement for whichever one of Forsberg/Panarin does worse this year, and I expect him to mature into a PPG player.

    These are great keepers man, outside of Burns they're all in for the long haul, and Burns could easily keep it up another 3 years. And you have a nasty piece of trade bait with whatever forward you have to dump next year. If Marner develops and Forsberg+Panarin do what they always do, any of those 3 at such young ages on teams trending upward should be worth a 2nd round pick to one of your league's lesser teams, especially if you find a nice rookie to package with them (That you don't want to keep yourself). How many teams is your league? Are many other keeper lists as strong as yours? I struggle to imagine more than 1-2 teams being nearly as good, and those are the ones with Crosby/McDavid.
    Last edited by Kyle; 07-07-2017 at 11:34 AM.

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    Sorry for the extremely long reply even by my standards but I felt very rude for taking so long to get back at you and wanted to give you plenty of food for thought
    Last edited by Kyle; 07-07-2017 at 11:32 AM.

  10. #10
    Geek Extraordinaire Hall of Famer Hamsterkill's Avatar
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    Kyle, just as an FYI, Eberle is an Islander now, and does have a good shot at playing with Tavares. That still didn't make him good enough to keep for me, though.
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  11. #11
    King Nitbag Hall of Famer Doctego's Avatar
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    Thanks, guys. Agreed on Eberle, Hamster. Overall, I like the moves. It's up in the air until positions come out, but I'm keeping 3 LW at the moment. Even after the Ovechkin deal. Maybe I'll get lucky with positions or I can always focus on drafting RW.


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