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  1. #151
    Senior Member Hall of Famer phaneuf6's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle View Post
    Ovechkin has 3 multi-goal games this year. 3.

    Has shots per game is almost 1.5 per game lower than his entire career also. His shooting percentage down 2% from 12-10.

    He did this before in 2011-2012, but it's way more surprising now due to the awful shooting percentage and the fact that everything has been going so great in Washington for him individually since then, and consistently so.

    Is 40 goals fair to expect anymore? Hard to ask that a year removed from 3 straight 50 goal seasons, but its also hard to expect Ovy suddenly making up the 100 shots he lost this year or the 2% his percentage dipped. Shooting % is often a very strong indicator of a turning point in people's careers. Gretzky averaged way over 20% for the first 13 years of his career, and below 14% the last 9. His last 3 high-% years were 54, 41, and 40 goals. He never reached 40 goals again the last 9 years, reaching 38 once but otherwise never reaching 30.

    There's nothing else to talk about so I'm forcing the subject -a bit-, but I do think if I had to put money on it, I'd say Ovy is never reaching 40 again. It doesn't get any easier at 32 and beyond. I think he's officially past his prime, which is not surprising because he had a game that was always going to be very difficult to keep up into his 30s, compared to Crosby who will probably stretch his prime another season or two at least at an MVP level.
    What a hot take!

    If you look at his big goal scoring years (lots of them) his PP goals are huge. The league may have just finally adjusted to the Caps PP and taken away that big one-timer from the circle. His ATOI is a bit lower this year...

    I don't think any of it matters if the Caps finally win a Cup, which they are looking primed to do. Going to the Verizon Center next Saturday to see them live - should be fun.

  2. #152
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    Hard to say. I remember there being talk years ago that he was done and he definitely came back. It gets harder as the years add up, though. He's been a great keeper for me in a league of mine and I'm thinking of offering him up around the league for picks. Not that I think he's done. Just that I have some tough keeper choices.




    Now is probably the last real chance you have to get significant value back for him, he won't be valued highly as a keeper if he has another year like this back to back. He'll still be a good player but every year that passes makes other people much less likely to think they have a chance at 40+. Right now, plenty of people will think he can still do that next year. I don't think he can.

    Phaneuf, I agree, at this point he doesn't need to do anything statistically for the sake of his legacy. Its all about winning a cup or two and his all-time stock will rise if he does that no matter what his production is at that point. He's already a 3 time MVP/7 time 50 goal scorer. I wasn't trying to be gloomy, just surprised at how quickly he seemed to sharply decline. Still a great asset though and far from a guy who's just along for the ride.

    Also, from the few Caps games I watch this year, that one-timer has for sure been schemed out a lot more than in the past. It's hardly ever there. Probably explains the shooting % too, because that was almost certainly his highest-% shot.
    Last edited by Kyle; 03-19-2017 at 12:17 PM.

  3. #153
    Senior Member Hall of Famer phaneuf6's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle View Post
    I agree, at this point he doesn't need to do anything statistically for the sake of his legacy. Its all about winning a cup or two and his all-time stock will rise if he does that no matter what his production is at that point. He's already a 3 time MVP/7 time 50 goal scorer. I wasn't trying to be gloomy, just surprised at how quickly he seemed to sharply decline. Still a great asset though.

    Also, from the few Caps games I watch this year, that one-timer has for sure been schemed out a lot more than in the past. It's hardly ever there.
    It's like Stamkos, really. Both players are very reliant on that half-boards one-timer on the powerplay because both players rely on a quick release to score goals. However, it's not THAT difficult to defend against, but does involve risk too. (i.e. if you hedge towards either player, it inevitably leaves a lane open for another player). I think the Caps are less reliant on winning games 6-5 as they might have been in the past, with Holtby being a top goaltender in the league now and the emergence of some of their defensemen and reliable role players in the bottom 6. Lars Eller, for instance, has been an extremely good add for them. Trotz has a lot to do with this too, obviously. I'd actually love to see them finally win a Cup. I might have an opportunity to work with them this summer, which I'm sure would be much more fun if they were Stanley Cup Champs too, haha.

  4. #154
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    Yeah, I know various buddies with small roles around the Wings organization and they describe the year after cup wins as heavenly.

    I think a lot of people (Me included) would be really glad for Ovy and the Caps to win one. People unfairly tried to paint him as the typical selfish Russian star early in his career and I think he did a good enough job of establishing himself as a real leader in the league. Not some great leader, but certainly a team-first guy. With no real reason to dislike the guy (Sloppy and reckless hits aside, mostly in the past), he's someone the hockey world should really want to see skating around with that trophy above his head, the same way we really wanted to see Blake do it (Although obviously Ovy isn't nearly that far along the desperate trail yet).

    Interesting thing about TB and WAS, both teams have adjusted so well to no Stamkos/slumping Ovechkin that they're both still top 8 in PP %. Good coaching there.
    Last edited by Kyle; 03-19-2017 at 02:03 PM.

  5. #155
    .. All-Star WIS's Avatar
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    How about that Malkin fella? He's really turned out to be an all around force and complete player.

  6. #156
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    Malkins beyond awesome. What him and Crosby have been able to do for such a long time is so remarkable, especially since they're rarely linemates. They're basically always #1/#2 in points per game every year. Imagine if they both didn't miss 20+ games routinely.

    Malkin was so freakishly dominant during his first cup run in 09. It was a prime Gretzky-quality postseason in an era where thats unheard of. That's by far the best playoff run of the last 20+ years, and fuck him for it too, it was all the difference in the Wings losing that 7 game series
    Last edited by Kyle; 03-19-2017 at 08:59 PM.

  7. #157
    Senior Member Hall of Famer two24four's Avatar
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    Eric Staal played in his 1000 NHL game today. I bought season tickets his last season in the OHL with the Petes pretty much because of him. Glad to see him play 1000 in the NHL.

  8. #158
    King Nitbag Hall of Famer Doctego's Avatar
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    It's amazing to me how fast the Wild have fallen in the standings. Obviously, the Hawks are playing a big part in that. Don't Boudreau teams usually wait until the playoffs before they fold?


  9. #159
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    It's equally amazing to me how steadily CBJ have stayed atop the standings. I can't possibly be the only one who saw a dip to 4-6th place (if not worse) coming after that improbable win streak.

    But yeah, the Wild are on a disaster skid. Hard to see them suddenly flicking the switch if they carry this shit streak into the playoffs.
    Last edited by Kyle; 03-20-2017 at 08:46 AM.

  10. #160
    Senior Member Hall of Famer phaneuf6's Avatar
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    2-8 in their last 10. Still have a record at 43-22-6. Better to skid now than later. They end the season playing, amongst others, VAN PHI DET ARI COLx2 and CAR, so they should either roll into the playoffs with some momentum or be an absolute tire fire.

  11. #161
    Senior Member Hall of Famer two24four's Avatar
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    Ever since Dubnyk let in 2 goals on 2 shots last Sunday vs Chicago he hasn't been the same. Wild better hope he finds his game again. They were down 4-0 to the Jets yesterday only to tie the game at 4-4 but they ended up losing 5-4. He's let in 16 goals in the last 5 games.

    I agree about the Blue Jackets. I didn't see them keeping this up. But they are mostly where they are because of Bobrovsky. He's the Vezina winner as of right now IMO.

  12. #162
    Geek Extraordinaire Hall of Famer Hamsterkill's Avatar
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    The Blue Jackets did dip after their win streak, to the point that I heard the players had to tell Torts to ease up on them. They've bounced back some, thanks in large part to Bob as stated. The Caps and Pens, at least, should still be considered stronger teams, though, and because of that, they're still looking at a likely early exit in the playoffs unless they can pull off an upset or manage to win the Metropolitan and thus draw the wildcard.
    Last edited by Hamsterkill; 03-20-2017 at 11:47 AM.
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  13. #163
    .. All-Star WIS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle View Post
    It's equally amazing to me how steadily CBJ have stayed atop the standings. I can't possibly be the only one who saw a dip to 4-6th place (if not worse) coming after that improbable win streak.

    But yeah, the Wild are on a disaster skid. Hard to see them suddenly flicking the switch if they carry this shit streak into the playoffs.
    Agreed! I keep checking the standings and look out for their streaks and I'm amazed. Kinda hoping the Leafs can halt them a bit coming up

  14. #164
    King Nitbag Hall of Famer Doctego's Avatar
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    Bobrovsky has been the top reason, but reason 1A has been their scoring being s spread out. They have a ton of guys scoring for them. You could probably count on 1 hand the number of guys that they had drafted in fantasy leagues before the season. I cut Atkinson in a dynasty league to make room for draft picks and he's kicking me in the ass. I didn't see this coming.


  15. #165
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    Crosby is far and beyond the NHL's most versatile player. Who else scores a goal of the year candidate, causes somebody's testicle to burst, then essentially hack off the tip of somebody's finger, all in one week? What can't he do?

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