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Thread: KK's 2011 Picks

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by b_illin View Post
    I looked into this a couple of years back but it clearly didn't stick, so maybe one of you can help explain how to understand betting lines.
    Odds
    Since you live in NA, the most common type of odds you're going to run into is American odds. American odds are in the form of a positive or negative number based on 100 base wagers. So if you see a positive number (ex. +120), it's stating how much money you would win if you made a standard $100 bet (so risk $100 to win $120). If you see a negative number (ex. -110), it's stating how much money you have to risk to win $100 (so risk $110 to win $100). Teams where you bet on the positive number are known as underdogs, teams where you bet on the negative number are known as favorites (obviously favorites are the teams that the public thinks will more likely win the game).

    Moneyline versus Point Spreads
    In sports like football or basketball, there's a lot of games where the winner is obvious (ex. Saints vs the Colts last night). So these matchups would have a large favourite vs a large underdog (ex. -600 vs +500). Laying money on a team to win straight-up is called making a Moneyline, or ML, bet. Upsets happen though, so you probably don't want to lay $600 to win $100 all the time or else you would have to win 6 bets for every loss. And you don't want to bet on the underdog all the time either cause large upsets don't happen all that often.

    This is where point spreads come in. By taking or giving up points you bring the odds down to around -110. Tonight, the Ravens are 10 point favourites against the Jaguars. So you'll see a -10 beside the Ravens and a +10 beside the Jaguars for the point spread lines. If you bet on the Ravens point spread then that means the Ravens have to win 11 or more for you to win your bet (they "cover the spread"). If they win by 10 it's a push and you get your money back, if they win by 9 or less (or lose) you lose your money. On the other side if you bet the Jaguars spread they only have to lose by 9 or less (or win) for you to win your bet. Essentially you're just subtracting/adding the spread that you bet to the team's total and seeing if they win.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by keyboard View Post
    Trying to decide if I should hedge my bet with JAX +9.5 on Monday.

    Also, adding PHX ML for a half unit tonight.
    Couple easy wins yesterday.

    Thinking of betting MTL for a half unit. Really think they are due for a win and probably won't lose both of their next two games at home.

    Quote Originally Posted by b_illin View Post
    I looked into this a couple of years back but it clearly didn't stick, so maybe one of you can help explain how to understand betting lines.
    Got to be more specific than that.

  3. #63
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    Ended up betting JAX to make 1 unit profit on the ML, or if BAL wins I make 2 units. Hedging is cowardly but guaranteed money is nice.

    Ended up getting MTL at -123, going with only a half unit. As bad as FLA is I just really don't care for MTL's team chemistry.

    Good luck if anyone bets tonight.

  4. #64
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    @b_illin
    Short answer is the lines represent the probability each bookie gives a certain outcome of a game. You can easily derive the probability if you use Decimal lines.
    -110 is rouhghly 1.91 in Decimal. Now you do 1 / Decimal odds and you get the probability.
    1 / 1.91 = .0523 == 52.3%

    But as you can see it's bigger than 50% it normally should be when both outcomes have the same probablity (50% or even odds).

    This is due to the vigorish each bookie puts in his lines.
    This vig guarantees that the bookie gets his cut no matter what the outcome of the game is. In NFL spread games where both sides get -110 the vig is about 4.55%. Therefore bookies try to adjust the spread so there's roughly the same amount of money on each side to maximize their earnings.

    In ML/RL/PL bets or here in Europe soccer bets (where there are 3 possible outcomes) the vig can be even bigger. Up to 10+% is quite possible especially in more exotic leagues and sports.


    Whenever you see a line try breaking it down into Decimal odds and check for the probability (of course deduct a couple % due to the vig). If you feel that one side is grossly undervalued than jump on that side. But of course that takes a lot of knowledge in a certain sports to do.


    In the end check wikipedia for vigorish or better Fixed-odds_gambling. From there you should find enough links.


  5. #65
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Not the best of weekends....

    Quote Originally Posted by KK's Stats
    NCAA(F): 19-13
    NFL: 18-14-2
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  6. #66
    * * * * * * Hall of Famer b_illin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by saveur View Post
    Odds
    Since you live in NA, the most common type of odds you're going to run into is American odds. American odds are in the form of a positive or negative number based on 100 base wagers. So if you see a positive number (ex. +120), it's stating how much money you would win if you made a standard $100 bet (so risk $100 to win $120). If you see a negative number (ex. -110), it's stating how much money you have to risk to win $100 (so risk $110 to win $100). Teams where you bet on the positive number are known as underdogs, teams where you bet on the negative number are known as favorites (obviously favorites are the teams that the public thinks will more likely win the game).

    Moneyline versus Point Spreads
    In sports like football or basketball, there's a lot of games where the winner is obvious (ex. Saints vs the Colts last night). So these matchups would have a large favourite vs a large underdog (ex. -600 vs +500). Laying money on a team to win straight-up is called making a Moneyline, or ML, bet. Upsets happen though, so you probably don't want to lay $600 to win $100 all the time or else you would have to win 6 bets for every loss. And you don't want to bet on the underdog all the time either cause large upsets don't happen all that often.

    This is where point spreads come in. By taking or giving up points you bring the odds down to around -110. Tonight, the Ravens are 10 point favourites against the Jaguars. So you'll see a -10 beside the Ravens and a +10 beside the Jaguars for the point spread lines. If you bet on the Ravens point spread then that means the Ravens have to win 11 or more for you to win your bet (they "cover the spread"). If they win by 10 it's a push and you get your money back, if they win by 9 or less (or lose) you lose your money. On the other side if you bet the Jaguars spread they only have to lose by 9 or less (or win) for you to win your bet. Essentially you're just subtracting/adding the spread that you bet to the team's total and seeing if they win.
    Thanks man, the top part I remembered, but the bttm part I did not. If I am betting using the spread as you described how does the money breakdown work out? Eg. Let's say that I had picked the Ravens to beat that 10 pt spread and let's say I had laid down $100. I would have lost that $100. What if I had picked the Jags to beat that spread and had bet $100 - how much would I have won?

    Thanks!!

    Quote Originally Posted by suckerpuncher View Post
    @b_illin
    Short answer is the lines represent the probability each bookie gives a certain outcome of a game. You can easily derive the probability if you use Decimal lines.
    -110 is rouhghly 1.91 in Decimal. Now you do 1 / Decimal odds and you get the probability.
    1 / 1.91 = .0523 == 52.3%
    Thanks Sucker! I am curious how you determined that -110 is roughly 1.91 in decimal though....drawing blanks on how to figure that out.
    Last edited by b_illin; 10-27-2011 at 11:27 AM.

  7. #67
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    Normally bookie websites give you an option to view the lines in either of the 3 versions.

    But here's a quick tutorial.

    If it's a negative number do:
    take a way the -
    divide by 100
    then do 1 / result
    in the end add 1

    -110 -> 110
    110 / 100 -> 1.1
    1 / 1.1 -> 0.91
    0.91 + 1 -> 1.91


    if it's a positive line do:
    divide by 100
    add 1

    +110 / 100 -> 1.1
    1.1 + 1 -> 2.1


    Now you can convert Decimal lines in American lines and even vice versa. Just start add the end and do the opposite.


  8. #68
    * * * * * * Hall of Famer b_illin's Avatar
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    ^ thanks. (and I feel very stupid right now for having asked how you got that number )

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by b_illin View Post
    Thanks man, the top part I remembered, but the bttm part I did not. If I am betting using the spread as you described how does the money breakdown work out? Eg. Let's say that I had picked the Ravens to beat that 10 pt spread and let's say I had laid down $100. I would have lost that $100. What if I had picked the Jags to beat that spread and had bet $100 - how much would I have won?

    Thanks!!
    You'll see the odds beside the spread.

    http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League...L/1/Lines.aspx

  10. #70
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    That's the beauty of using Decimal lines. Just multiply the lines with the amount of money you put in and you'll know what you get out if your bet wins.
    You can even mulitply multiple lines when you do a parlay since it's simple math (granted a calculator can come in handy).


  11. #71
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Alright ladies..... Here we go! Only one early game and its a last minute add on, and I am actually not happy I did it, but.......

    Michigan -14 over Purdue

    Then let's hit mid-afternoon with:

    Maryland -7 over Boston College
    Illinois +5.5 over Penn State
    Baylor +14 over Oklahoma State

    I was tempted to take my first total and go OVER 81 in the Baylor/Oklahoma State game, but backed off.

    From the mid-afternoon, we hit prime time:

    Clemson -3 over Georgia Tech
    Ohio State +7 over Wisconsin
    Stanford -7 over USC

    It's still a lot of plays, but hey, it's not 9! I added Michigan last minute to get an odd amount of games played and figured since I didn't have an early start game, had to go there. Good luck!
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  12. #72
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    Michigan State +4.5 vs Nebraska
    Maryland -6.5 over BC
    Rutgers/WVU U52

    Might add on later. Didn't make it to Jacksonville due to a sick daughter, so I need to bet to cheer me up.
    Last edited by dw13; 10-29-2011 at 11:06 AM.



  13. #73
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    It gets worse.

    It took WVU/Rutgers a half, in the snow to go over my bet. Unreal.

    We'll keep fighting tomorrow.



  14. #74
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    I'll update the NCAA(F) Saturday later, but wanted to drop this one in quickly...

    Temple -3.5. Go Owls!
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  15. #75
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    NSH tonight, going a little big on it. Good luck.

  16. #76
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    What a terrible slightly better than OK Saturday and a bad Wednesday... Friday has to be the turnaround, right???

    USC -20 over Colorado.

    Anyone any thoughts on Central Michigan/Kent State -2???

    Quote Originally Posted by KK's Stats
    NCAA(F): 23-17
    NFL: 18-14-2
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  17. #77
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    USC = winner!

    Quote Originally Posted by KK's Stats
    NCAA(F): 24-17
    NFL: 18-14-2
    Lots of big numbers on the board... Boise State -42.5, wow... Anyway, what we have on tap for now:

    Michigan -3 over Iowa
    Texas Tech +14 over Texas
    Florida -13.5 over Vanderbilt
    Stanford -20.5 over Oregon State
    LSU +5 over Alabama
    Oklahoma State -21 over Kansas State
    Oregon -16.5 over Washington

    Good luck.... Hopefully...the three 12pm games start me off right!!!
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  18. #78
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by King_Killah View Post
    USC = winner!



    Lots of big numbers on the board... Boise State -42.5, wow... Anyway, what we have on tap for now:

    Michigan -3 over Iowa -- BULLSHIT! TWO BAD CALLS AT THE EOG.
    Texas Tech +14 over Texas -- CRUSHED.
    Florida -13.5 over Vanderbilt -- REALLY?
    Stanford -20.5 over Oregon State -- ALWAYS RELIABLE!
    LSU +5 over Alabama -- THAT'S RIGHT, OUTRIGHT!
    Oklahoma State -21 over Kansas State -- COME ON OKstate.
    Oregon -16.5 over Washington -- BY THE SLIMMEST OF MARGINS!

    Good luck.... Hopefully...the three 12pm games start me off right!!!

    3-4 yesterday... Certainly not what I wanted, but could have been worse!

    Quote Originally Posted by KK's Stats
    NCAA(F): 27-21
    NFL: 18-14-2
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  19. #79
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    1:00pm:

    Atlanta -6.5 over Indianapolis -- STOMP!
    San Francisco -5 over Washington -- NINERS FOR REAL??? OR PRODUCT OF SHITTY OPPONENTS???

    4:00pm:

    Cincinnati +2 over Tennessee -- BENGALS, FOR REAL!
    St. Louis +3 over Arizona -- TWO SHITTY TEAMS, ONE'S JUST SHITTIER!
    Green Bay -5 over San Diego -- RIDICULOUS THAT IT TURNED OUT CLOSER THAN IT REALLY WAS. PACK OFFENSE = SICK!

    Hope we don't need 8:00pm to bounce back!

    Leaving 8:00pm alone! Solid day to make up for Saturday's nonsense!

    Quote Originally Posted by KK's Stats
    NCAA(F): 27-21
    NFL: 22-15-2
    Kinda pissed at that StL/Zona outcome... Bradford couldn't put it away. The punt return in OT by Peterson was pretty nice though.
    Last edited by King_Killah; 11-06-2011 at 08:21 PM.
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  20. #80
    Go Bolts Hall of Famer dw13's Avatar
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    Miami/KC U41
    Tenn -2 over Cinci
    Washington +5.5 vs SF

    Not many I like. We'll see how those 3 play out.



  21. #81
    Go Bolts Hall of Famer dw13's Avatar
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    Adding Jets/Bengals in a teaser both to +8 at -110



  22. #82
    Senior Member All-Star moans's Avatar
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    made a couple parlays for the early games
    1: atl, kc, buf @ 3.27
    2: atl, kc, hou, dal, no @ 3.2
    3: atl, kc, hou, dal, no, buf, sf @ 7.34

    Might toss in another one or two later, we'll see how it goes.

  23. #83
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moans View Post
    made a couple parlays for the early games
    1: atl, kc, buf @ 3.27
    2: atl, kc, hou, dal, no @ 3.2
    3: atl, kc, hou, dal, no, buf, sf @ 7.34

    Might toss in another one or two later, we'll see how it goes.
    Wow.... KC killed ya!!!! Were these all SU or against the number??? Oh...and I am sure its a typo, but how is line 1 @ 3.27 and line 2 @ 3.2 with two extra plays?
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  24. #84
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dw13 View Post
    Adding Jets/Bengals in a teaser both to +8 at -110
    That's a WINNER!!!!
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  25. #85
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dw13 View Post
    Miami/KC U41
    Tenn -2 over Cinci
    Washington +5.5 vs SF

    Not many I like. We'll see how those 3 play out.
    Not too good, huh!
    The Best there is, The Best there was, The BEST THERE EVER WILL BE..... King Killah!


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  26. #86
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    4-1 last Sunday was a nice little day. Was enough to keep me away from the Sunday late game, the Monday game, the Wednesday game, the Thursday games...... But, not tonight... Line is a little weird...

    I have to go with the Orangemen of Syracuse +3.5 at home over South Florida. I like it because of the hook. I don't understand why SoFLA are a 3.5 point road favorite after what, losing four in a row???

    Also, for fun... we'll see how this pans out, but hopped on college hoop action. Valparaiso -3.5 over Georgia Southern. I wanted to take action on the aircraft carrier game, but nah...too much attention on that game.

    Quote Originally Posted by KK's Stats
    NCAA(F): 27-21
    NFL: 26-16-2
    Good luck... I'll be back on with Saturday action!
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  27. #87
    Go Bolts Hall of Famer dw13's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by King_Killah View Post
    Valparaiso -3.5 over Georgia Southern.
    Got a friend who plays for Georgia Southern! Random game to be picking on!



  28. #88
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dw13 View Post
    Got a friend who plays for Georgia Southern! Random game to be picking on!
    Nice!

    Oh and we'll call that a win! I've learned over the years of doing this that the better bets are on the not as higher profile games. Everyone and their sister who watches college hoops was watching the aircraft carrier game, I just scrolled the list of action and this one jumped out at me.

    As for why was Syracuse a home dog...... they can't catch the ball in the end zone! Bastards! I'll update the numbers and come back in a few with picks for today!
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  29. #89
    The Original K.I.N.G. Hall of Famer King_Killah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KK's Stats
    NCAA(F): 27-22
    NFL: 26-16-2
    NCAA(B): 1-0
    Today's action..... as of now, only 5 games!

    12:00pm

    Florida +3 over South Carolina

    3:30pm

    Illinois -1.5 over Michigan
    Florida State -9 over Miami

    8:00pm

    Stanford -3 over Oregon

    9:15pm

    Idaho +22.5 over BYU

    ---------------------------------
    Hate playing against Michigan, but oh well... I wish I hopped on that yesterday, the line was still a pick 'em. Rolling with Stanford until someone shows me why I shouldn't. Oregon could be that team, I'll take my chances at -3 though. Idaho, too many points. Over three TDs. They'll lose, likely, but keep it within the number. The Florida play was a toss up. As you know, I like to play an odd number of games and needed a 5th.

    We'll see how the early and mid-afternoon rolls to see if we need to hedge it with more late action. For now though... Good luck!
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  30. #90
    Go Bolts Hall of Famer dw13's Avatar
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    Purdue +8.5 vs OSU
    Penn State / Nebraksa U42
    Missouri +2 vs Texas
    S. Miss -8.5 vs UCF
    Iowa +3 vs MSU



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