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StrongArmSu
08-11-2010, 08:35 AM
Everyday a new thread will be made with a poll that will enable HI members to vote for the player they believe should be ranked at the current position. This should be done considering basic categories (G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, - W, SV%, GAA, SO) and Basic positions (C, RW, LW, D and G)

Today, we will make the first poll for the 1st overall ranking. Tomorrow, we will vote for #2, the next day we vote for #3 and so on. If we do one everyday, we can do the top 20 players before Sept 12th.

Everyday a poll is completed, we will take the player with the majority of votes and add him to the official list along with the % of votes he won by. This will give everyone an idea of the confidence level HI members have in that players ranking.

I know there is already a thread asking people to mock their top 10 and then there will be an avg list made...but this way, we can get exact results and hopefully get as many members as possible to participate.

This will be the post that I will edit after each poll closes. Hopefully a mod can sticky it so that everyone can have easy access.

HI Community Official 09/10 Fantasy Rankings

1. Alex Ovechkin - 82.14% of 28 votes (HM: Sidney Crosby - 17.86%)
2. Sidney Crosby - 97.14% of 35 votes (HM: Evgeny Malkin - 3.86%)
3. Evgeny Malkin - 71.43% of 35 votes (HM: Nicklas Backstrom - 14.29%)
4. Nicklas Backstrom - 47.06% of 34 votes (HM: Roberto Luongo - 23.53%)
5. Roberto Luongo - 40.00% of 35 votes (HM: Pat Kane - 22.86%)
6. Pat Kane - 40.00% of 40 votes (HM: Ilya Kovalchuk - 20.00%)
7. Martin Brodeur - 23.53% of 34 votes (HM: Ilya Kovalchuk - 20.59%)
8. Ilya Kovalchuk - 37.93% of 29 votes (HM: Steven Stamkos - 20.69%)
9. Steven Stamkos - 23.53% of 34 votes (HM: Ryan Miller - 20.59%)
10. Mike Green - 30.00% of 30 votes (HM: Ryan Miller - 20.00%)
11. Ryan Miller - 31.03% of 29 votes (HM: Dany Heatley - 24.14%)
12. Dany Heatley - 43.48% of 23 votes (HM: Daniel Sedin - 26.09%)
13. Daniel Sedin - 60.87% of 23 votes (HM: Henrik Sedin - 13.04%)
14. Zach Parise - 30.00% of 30 votes (HM: Henrik Lundqvist - 16.67%)
15. Henrik Sedin - 48.57% of 35 votes (via tiebreaker)
16. Corey Perry - 29.63% of 27 votes (HM: Ryan Getzlaf - 25.93%)
17. Ryan Getzlaf - 54.17% of 24 votes (via tiebreaker)
18. Henrik Lundqvist - 45. 83% of 24 votes (via tiebreaker)
19. Martin St. Louis - 33.33% of 24 votes (HM: Joe Thornton - 20.83%)
20. Joe Thornton - 22.73% of 22 votes (HM: Semin/Gaborik - 18.18%)
21. Alexander Semin - 33.33% of 18 votes (HM: Datsyuk & Gaborik - 16.67%)
22. Pavel Datsyuk - 30.00% of 20 votes (HM: Iginla & Gaborik - 20.00%)
23. Jarome Iginla - 31.25% of 16 votes (HM: Gaborik - 18.75%)
24. Rick Nash - 30.07% of 13 votes (HM: Gaborik 23.08%)
25. Marian Gaborik - 50.00% of 10 votes (HM: Bryzgalov 20.00%)
26. Ilya Bryzgalov - 27.78% of 18 votes (HM: Henrik Zetterberg - 22.22%)

StrongArmSu
08-11-2010, 10:18 AM
Zang, can you sticky this bad boy?

Zangetsu
08-11-2010, 10:20 AM
You got it.

Don't forget to remind people to include their vote for who to add to the next list.

Castanagy
08-19-2010, 09:38 AM
I'm surprised Luongo was selected before Brodeur. In a 1 year pool, I think Brodeur is hands down the better fantasy goalie. Luongo is good, but not super consistent. Also, I'd take NJ's defensive style of play any day (although Vancouver isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse like the Caps, but still).

Zangetsu
08-19-2010, 09:49 AM
I think the additions of Hamhuis and Ballard are helping Luongo's draft stock. Vancouver's D is ridiculous this year.

Ehrhoff - Ballard
Edler - Hamhuis
Bieksa - SOB/Alberts/Rome/Salo (injured)

Castanagy
08-19-2010, 12:56 PM
I think the additions of Hamhuis and Ballard are helping Luongo's draft stock. Vancouver's D is ridiculous this year.

Ehrhoff - Ballard
Edler - Hamhuis
Bieksa - SOB/Alberts/Rome/Salo (injured)

Is Bieksa really slated to be on the 3rd Dman pairing? That's rough, he used to be a great fantasy producer (PIMs, points, etc). But I guess with injuries and seeing the top 4, it would be pretty tough for him to crack that. It'll be interesting to see what Ballard does in Vancouver, maybe he can get back to his 35+ pts, 80+ pims form.

Zangetsu
08-19-2010, 12:59 PM
Bieksa might be traded before the season starts, but right now I think he'd be below those other four guys on the depth chart. If things stay as they are, he might get some PP time. Also, it would probably increase his PIM production, as he'd have less responsibility to keep himself on the ice, rather than in the box.

Skate or Die
08-19-2010, 07:00 PM
I can't believe Kane is ranked as the second best winger. What a joke. He's an assist heavy low PIM pussy.

alias
08-19-2010, 08:42 PM
I can't believe Kane is ranked as the second best winger. What a joke. He's an assist heavy low PIM pussy.

who do you suggest is better?

edit: I should change that to "who would you draft before him keeping in mind how shallow RW is?"

Hamsterkill
08-19-2010, 09:47 PM
who do you suggest is better?

edit: I should change that to "who would you draft before him keeping in mind how shallow RW is?"
Personally speaking, everyone that's come after him so far, plus a few more. Even among right wings, I still rank Heatley higher. I always look at whoever is going to be more valuable on the stats sheet in the early rounds and don't even pay attention to positions until at least the 4th round.

Zangetsu
08-19-2010, 10:01 PM
Since these polls are meant to rank players for one year leagues, I do think that Kane may have gone a bit too high, but he is the #1 point producing RW in fantasy hockey right now.

Hamsterkill
08-19-2010, 10:09 PM
Since these polls are meant to rank players for one year leagues, I do think that Kane may have gone a bit too high, but he is the #1 point producing RW in fantasy hockey right now.
Depends how you judge. Heatley scores more goals and gets more PIM. And Kane has only out-produced Heatley once, so far, by only 6 points.

Zangetsu
08-19-2010, 10:14 PM
Was Heatley a RW last year? Based on my offseason sources, Heatley is a LW. As a RW, Heatley would be much more valuable.

bearcats
08-19-2010, 10:16 PM
heater was a LW, he did not have duel elig last year...he did the year before......

Hamsterkill
08-19-2010, 10:21 PM
I could have sworn Heater played RW last year with Marleau on Joe's left... Didn't Marleau have LW?

Zangetsu
08-19-2010, 10:27 PM
We're talking about Yahoo here. When was the last time Yahoo actually cared about the positions forwards actually played on the ice?

bearcats
08-19-2010, 10:48 PM
heater was lw on yahoo last year, I just checked three of my four leagues that I had him in last year...

HT9
08-20-2010, 06:01 AM
I think the additions of Hamhuis and Ballard are helping Luongo's draft stock. Vancouver's D is ridiculous this year.

Ehrhoff - Ballard
Edler - Hamhuis
Bieksa - SOB/Alberts/Rome/Salo (injured)

This makes me so happy :)

jeffoule
08-20-2010, 07:53 AM
who do you suggest is better?

edit: I should change that to "who would you draft before him keeping in mind how shallow RW is?"

I would prefer having Martin St-Louis over Kane in a one year league

Skate or Die
08-20-2010, 12:47 PM
who do you suggest is better?

edit: I should change that to "who would you draft before him keeping in mind how shallow RW is?"Heatley and Kovalchuk by a mile. Perry probably too.

My philosophy on RW changed last year from year's past. Its now sooo thin, that you don't really lose much ground against the rest of your pool by not landing Kane/Perry/Iggy. Sure a few guys get them, but then you're on par with the other 6-12 guys in your pool by picking from the next tier.

Where I think you can now get a huge leg up is by locking down 2 stud LW. There are about 10 stud LW out there, off the top of my head...

Ovechkin
Kovalchuk
Heatley
Parise
D. Sedin
...
Nash
Marleau (not sure if he'll be LW yet)
Gagne
Vanek

If I recall correctly, its a pretty sharp dropoff after that. If you can forget about RW for a couple rounds, try and lock up two of the above. Not only does that give you a huge leg up on studs, its also gives you a verrrrrry valuable trade piece later. That is the key.

Reaching for incomplete players in the first round is a recipe for disaster. You can't screw that pick up.

alias
08-22-2010, 12:58 PM
for fun I went to HockeyPoolGeek and input the settings here to see what their top 10 was. It's based on HPG's projections for the upcoming year which uses a bit of the last 3 years stats as a guide. You can't have goalies on the same list as skaters, so here's the top 10 skaters & top 5 goalies from HPG.

Skaters:
Ovechkin
Green
Crosby
D. Sedin
Pronger
Malkin
Heatley
Chara
Kovalchuk
Phaneuf

Goalies:
Rinne
Bryzgalov
Brodeur
Anderson
Luongo

I gotta say, I don't like it much myself. Too many d-men for one, Phaneuf shouldn't be near the top 10, and as for the top goalies, no Miller(12), Rask(6), or Lundqvist(17) puzzles me.

Zangetsu
08-22-2010, 01:05 PM
Rinne is good, but the #1 fantasy goalie this year? Seriously? Nashville isn't even a lock to make the playoffs.

alias
08-22-2010, 01:06 PM
My philosophy on RW changed last year from year's past. Its now sooo thin, that you don't really lose much ground against the rest of your pool by not landing Kane/Perry/Iggy. Sure a few guys get them, but then you're on par with the other 6-12 guys in your pool by picking from the next tier.

But by this logic if you land Kane/Perry/Iggy you have a leg up on the other 9 teams in your pool and you can land a LW that is similar to all other 12 teams. It's like saying don't go for AO 1st overall because the next tier of players below him puts you on par with the rest of your league.

Ultimate_Nux_Fan
08-22-2010, 01:10 PM
Heatley and Kovalchuk by a mile. Perry probably too.

My philosophy on RW changed last year from year's past. Its now sooo thin, that you don't really lose much ground against the rest of your pool by not landing Kane/Perry/Iggy. Sure a few guys get them, but then you're on par with the other 6-12 guys in your pool by picking from the next tier.

Where I think you can now get a huge leg up is by locking down 2 stud LW. There are about 10 stud LW out there, off the top of my head...

Ovechkin
Kovalchuk
Heatley
Parise
D. Sedin
...
Nash
Marleau (not sure if he'll be LW yet)
Gagne
Vanek

If I recall correctly, its a pretty sharp dropoff after that. If you can forget about RW for a couple rounds, try and lock up two of the above. Not only does that give you a huge leg up on studs, its also gives you a verrrrrry valuable trade piece later. That is the key.

Reaching for incomplete players in the first round is a recipe for disaster. You can't screw that pick up.

Agreed completely, which is why I'd be very uncomfortable picking Kane at 6th overall, as the HI rankings suggest. I'm sure you could do a helluva lot better than Kane with the 6th overall pick, regardless of position.

Raja
08-22-2010, 01:25 PM
I think SHO are heavily weighted on HPG. Honestly I do like Rinne and could definitely see him being #1, and likely top 5.

As for Kane at 6, I wouldn't take him there but he should be top skaters 10 for sure. He's a 90 point player, RW to boot. There were 7 of those last year, and likely 10 ish any given season.

alias
08-22-2010, 02:26 PM
I think SHO are heavily weighted on HPG. Honestly I do like Rinne and could definitely see him being #1, and likely top 5.

Interesting. I took shutouts out of the equation and the new top 5 goalies look like this:

Bryzgalov
Anderson
Rinne
Luongo
Turco

Brodeur dropped to 18th, Miller ended up 6th, Rask 25th. and Lundy 26th. Still not the way I'd rank 'em. I know they didn't even have goalies as an option to be ranked last year, this is likely why.

edit: actually looking at it a bit deeper it looks like they value goalies who play many games quite high. For example they project Rask to have a better GAA & sv% than Bryz, but have Bryz playing 10 more games which means potential for more wins. It's a bit flawed IMO since stats like GAA & sv% are not cumulative stats. You don't need to play your goalies every single day to have a good GAA or sv%. You can hit the min starts & bench 'em if the stats are good. But then again they have guys like Roloson, Leighton & Ellis ahead of Rask and they are all projected to have less wins, higher GAA & lower sv% so I'm not sure what's going on there.

Zangetsu
08-22-2010, 11:08 PM
I respect HPG for trying to do something as grand as their website is trying to do, but I've been looking through their projections, and they are just ridiculous.

They've got Krejci regressing to under 50pts. They've got Kessel scoring 56pts, even though he was on pace for 65pts on a weaker Leafs team. I'm sure there are more, but I was only comparing stats for a new team that I'm drafting right now.

Gern Blansten
08-22-2010, 11:16 PM
I respect HPG for trying to do something as grand as their website is trying to do, but I've been looking through their projections, and they are just ridiculous.

They've got Krejci regressing to under 50pts. They've got Kessel scoring 56pts, even though he was on pace for 65pts on a weaker Leafs team. I'm sure there are more, but I was only comparing stats for a new team that I'm drafting right now.

HPG's 3 year average stats are more realistic, I think. FWIW, Dobber has Krejci at 70 and Kessel at 68.

Zangetsu
08-23-2010, 12:07 AM
Projections are a tricky business, but I would say that trying to use a mathematical formula, in any form, is a recipe for disaster. Each hockey season and each hockey player is unique. To try to predict future stats, only using past stats, will never work. Players change teams. Teams change. The NHL, like most professional leagues is dynamic.

Gern Blansten
08-23-2010, 12:37 AM
Players change teams.

In which case I'm all for 14 year contracts!


Kidding, of course. :D

Skate or Die
08-23-2010, 09:31 AM
But by this logic if you land Kane/Perry/Iggy you have a leg up on the other 9 teams in your pool and you can land a LW that is similar to all other 12 teams. It's like saying don't go for AO 1st overall because the next tier of players below him puts you on par with the rest of your league.No doubt...so long as you're not reaching. Kane/Perry/Iggy at 6 is definitely reaching.

HockeyPoolGeek
08-23-2010, 10:51 AM
Just thought I'd jump in here to add to the conversation a bit! :)

Very much appreciate all the feedback, but I'm going to bounce any comments on our projections right back to the big, fat, disclaimer that sits over top of them:

At Hockey Pool Geek we're not projection experts, so our projections are loosely based on last year's totals (with insight provided by 3-year averages). These projection don't do the best job of capturing the breakout players, risers, fallers and the like -- but the projections themselves aren't where our site adds value. The value comes from the analysis of the stats, targeting the results to your particular league setup. The resulting rankings take into account the position requirements, your scoring categories, etc to generate a list that's fully customized for your setup. HPG subscribers can modify the stat sets too, so they have the flexibility to upload their own projections or those of a 3rd party provider.

So yeah... couldn't agree with Zangetsu more. ;)

Ultimately, what we're about at HPG isn't projecting what players will do... there is a ton of great work being done out there on the internet in this area, and to be perfectly honest, it's a black art! ;) The part of the fantasy hockey equation that is almost entirely ignored, at least outside of everybody's top-secret spreadsheets, is the analysis of how a given league setup affects player value.

Even if a group of us were drafting a team based on a completely known set of stat outcomes for a complicated league setup (like the one that's the basis for this thread), we'd probably make a load of incorrect decisions because of the subtle (and not-so-subtle!) effects that the scoring and setup has on player value. That's where the HPG.com site adds its value: it takes a stat set, and based on the constraints that the league setup offers, it values players accordingly. We're not stuck on the projections at all -- if you don't like them, we're fine with that... just put in your own. :)

As for the weights of the specific categories (like SO), I'll give you two explanations. The first is the simpified version, the second is the mega-dork version.

Simplified: the weights are based on the relative spread in a stat category... a huge number of shutouts is 10, a huge number of wins is 40. Obviously then, 1 shutout needs to have a larger weight than a win... on a very simplified basis, it would be worth about 4 times as much (1/10 vs 1/40).

Mega-dork: The weights are standard scores (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score), which is a long-held statistical method for comparing different populations of data on standard footing. The way it's done is to normalize each stat category by expressing each value as the number of standard deviations (a measure of variability) from the mean. The standard deviations are determined just by the spread of the numbers; typically, goals and assists have a STDEV somewhere in the order of 10, PIM around 20, etc.

To take the simplest example, let's look at a 10-team league that dresses 10F per team and counts P and PIM, that's all. There are 100 players taken in this league (10 F x 10 teams = 100). Based on the top 100 point getters, the average F puts up about 66 P and 48 PIM. The standard deviation for P and PIM are 14 and 28, respectively.

So which player do you choose, one who puts up 70 P and 100 PIM, or the one who puts up 80 P and 50 PIM? Gotta do the math in order to know.

The formula for a standard score is (Value - Average)/STDEV

Player A: (70 P - 66 P)/14 + (100 PIM - 48 PIM)/28 = 2.14
Player B: (80 P - 66 P)/14 + (50 PIM - 48 PIM)/28 = 1.07

So Player A is, cumulatively, slightly over 2 standard deviations better than average, whereas Player B is just a hair over 1 STDEV better. Consistently building that "above average-ness" is the key to winning multicat fantasy hockey leagues, and that's what the tools at HPG.com do for you.

So, in the end, the weights that are applied on HPG are based on the distribution of the numbers themselves.

Long digression over!

Rinne comes out near the top of those rankings because he is good in every single one of the stat categories. Lundqvist falls down the list because he's not likely to get that many wins or SO. :(

But like I said at the start of the post -- projections aren't my thing; it's analysis. Our projections are there so there are some projections you can use as a basis, but we're not insane enough as to project 50+ stats for 500+ players. So we roll with 3-year averages, with some tweaks where necessary. :)

Hope this clears things up and is some good fodder for discussion!

Cheers

HPG

alias
08-23-2010, 11:27 AM
Thanks for the explanation HPG. Much appreciated :beer: As with all things no rakings system is ever perfect but I do find your site exremely helpful indeterming player values, especially when comparing players to different positions.

Quick question for you as well. Do you plan on adding saves as a category for goaltenders?

HockeyPoolGeek
08-23-2010, 11:44 AM
No worries, Alias! I lurk around most forums, springing into action when I'm misunderstood. ;)

After all, I'm a poolie too!

To answer your question, I'll just be a smartass and point you to the FAQ (http://www.hockeypoolgeek.com/faq) on the site.

All the best,

HPG

Skate or Die
08-23-2010, 11:44 AM
HPG, I'm fully on board with your method of evaluating players from a normal distribution standpoint. But I think some weighting needs to be done with respect to absolute scores against all players, not just within each position.

i.e. Green. I get that he's that much better than the next best Dman, but it just can't be right to select him at 2 ahead of Crosby or Malkin. Something like

0.5*(z score within position group) + 0.5*(z score within all skaters group)

would probably lead to a little better rankings. Just my humble opinion.

HockeyPoolGeek
08-23-2010, 12:11 PM
Ahh, therein lies the rub, Skate or Die! First, I really appreciate your sharing the thought... it's something that has been an internal discussion for quite a while. These rankings are real value, not perceived value. I've grappled with the concept you mentioned for a long time, and in the end concluded that if you start adding "adjustments" like that, it compromises the validity of the analysis to some degree.

Where you end up getting an edge in drafts/leagues is by flipping high perceived value for high real value... just because Green is a top-3 skater (he is in pretty much any format that differentiates between F and D) doesn't mean that you need to take him with a top-3 pick. Same comment with Phaneuf and Chara (and their peers) -- their contributions are HUGE, and mathematically equivalent to a bigtime scoring forward... there's just no way to reason around the facts that a) you have set positions and b) those defenders are considerably "above average" compared to their peers at D. There's still the gap between real and perceived value (especially with D) so if you can get that kind of production/value out of a later pick, you're golden!

In the end, it's always to the GM's judgement to make the best picks/moves they can; everything out there (including www.hockeypoolgeek.com) is just to get more information into the hands of the decisionmakers. You can separate the rankings on HPG.com by position, which is a sensible way to approach a draft in a positional league anyway!

Your comment is right on the money, though -- it's exploiting the gap between real (calculated) value and perceived value that gets you a winning team. I think there's more use in having a list of rankings that give the real value and leaving the individual GM to interpret how to reconcile that with perceived value than making a bunch of assumptions to try and do that for them.

jeffoule
08-24-2010, 08:37 AM
who the hell is Stamos at 9 ? :P kidding

alias
08-24-2010, 08:42 AM
who the hell is Stamos at 9 ? :P kidding

John Stamos' younger brother. I hope he can hit that high note.

Zangetsu
08-24-2010, 10:00 AM
As a Stamkos fan, I'm offended that Su would make such an error. As someone who grew up watching Uncle Jesse and the gang, I'm torn as to whether I should correct the error. I suppose accuracy trumps comedy in this case. I'll fix it now.

snoopzen
08-24-2010, 10:46 AM
As a Stamkos fan, I'm offended that Su would make such an error. As someone who grew up watching Uncle Jesse and the gang, I'm torn as to whether I should correct the error. I suppose accuracy trumps comedy in this case. I'll fix it now.I know you mean this Uncle Jesse...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZqhVPEFBRZ0/SQjSGSeE4KI/AAAAAAAAAZw/e2UgDycehJk/s400/stamos004.jpg

But there is only one true Uncle Jesse... y'all!
http://www.tvscoop.tv/Uncle%2BJesse.jpg

Zangetsu
08-24-2010, 11:48 AM
Blasphemy!!

There can be only one true Uncle Jesse, and he wears a leather vest.

Skate or Die
08-24-2010, 01:03 PM
alias, why did you want Rask added in the #13 thread?!? Especially without Fleury up there yet (or Vokoun, or Kipper, or Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers)...

alias
08-24-2010, 08:37 PM
alias, why did you want Rask added in the #13 thread?!? Especially without Fleury up there yet (or Vokoun, or Kipper, or Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers)...

Rask was #1 in GAA & sv% last year with 5 shutouts in only 45 games. He now is the #1 guy. The only cat MAF should do better in is wins, but he'll play about 5 or so more games. Of the ones you listed Vokoun is the only one who would make me think twice. And JDD....really?

edit: damn looking at MAF's numbers from last year he did worse than I thought. Yeah he had 37 wins (.56win%/66starts) but a 2.65GAA, .905sv% and only 1 shutout. Rask had 22 wins (.56win%/39 starts) 1.97GAA, 9.31sv% & 5 shutouts

Zangetsu
08-24-2010, 08:44 PM
Snipes posted something in the Bruins thread about Julien telling Thomas he'd get a chance to win the job in camp. Now, I'm a big Rask supporter, and I think he's already a great goalie, but guys that are getting paid $5mil/year will always get opportunities.

alias
08-24-2010, 08:46 PM
Snipes posted something in the Bruins thread about Julien telling Thomas he'd get a chance to win the job in camp. Now, I'm a big Rask supporter, and I think he's already a great goalie, but guys that are getting paid $5mil/year will always get opportunities.

If you're fighting for a playoff spot you always play your better goalie regardless of what the backup is paid. Julien is on a short leash too. Rumour is he's lost the room. Might not be around all year anyways.

Zangetsu
08-24-2010, 08:51 PM
I doubt the Bruins are going to be fighting for anything other than the #2 seed in the East. The NE is arguably worse than the SE this year, and the Bruins should win the division handily.

BTW, I'm not saying that Rask shouldn't be one of the first goalies taken in a one year league, but he's the only top-tier guy that will see significant competition from his backup. Luongo, Miller, Lundqvist, MAF, and Brodeur will see zero competition.

Maybe I'm just conservative, but I would rather go with a guy that is guaranteed 70+ starts than a guy that could sit the bench for an entire week if his backup is playing well.

Dubz
08-24-2010, 09:05 PM
These rankings are real value, not perceived value.

The thing is im not taking Rinne or Green over Malkin or Luongo no matter how real their values are.

bearcats
08-24-2010, 09:08 PM
I know you mean this Uncle Jesse...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZqhVPEFBRZ0/SQjSGSeE4KI/AAAAAAAAAZw/e2UgDycehJk/s400/stamos004.jpg

But there is only one true Uncle Jesse... y'all!
http://www.tvscoop.tv/Uncle%2BJesse.jpg

snoop...

I love the pic of uncle jesse....I still think Denver Pyle is the absolute funniest name on the planet.....:lol::lol:

Hamsterkill
08-24-2010, 09:33 PM
I doubt the Bruins are going to be fighting for anything other than the #2 seed in the East. The NE is arguably worse than the SE this year, and the Bruins should win the division handily.
I'm not ready to go that far. The Bruins don't really seem all that different a team than they were last year to me. Ottawa and Buffalo will both still be challenging for the division, and I actually still think Buffalo is the favorite on that.

And I still don't see how anyone can argue the the NE is going to be worse than the SE... I look at Atlanta and I still see suck. Tampa looks on the right track and should fight for a playoff spot. Carolina has probably gotten worse. Ditto Washington. And the Panthers... no change.

Zangetsu
08-24-2010, 09:38 PM
The Sabres don't have the scoring depth that the Bruins have, and I'd take the Bruins D corps over the Sabres. I'm a huge Miller fan, but I don't think he makes up the difference. I think the Bruins of 08-09 will be reemerging this season.

I have absolutely no faith in my Sens, and the Habs will be worse without Halak (alias is going to love that statement). Still, I think the NE is just barely ahead of the SE. One thing is clear, though. The Atlantic is definitely the toughest division in the East.

Hamsterkill
08-24-2010, 09:41 PM
The Sabres don't have the scoring depth that the Bruins have, and I'd take the Bruins D corps over the Sabres. I'm a huge Miller fan, but I don't think he makes up the difference. I think the Bruins of 08-09 will be reemerging this season.

I have absolutely no faith in my Sens, and the Habs will be worse without Halak (alias is going to love that statement). Still, I think the NE is just barely ahead of the SE. One thing is clear, though. The Atlantic is definitely the toughest division in the East.
That definitely is an unassailable statement.

Gambit
08-24-2010, 09:53 PM
The Atlantic and Central divisions could see as many as 4 teams make the playoffs this season IMO. Meanwhile, the Northeast and the Northwest divisions could see as little as two teams make the show, or dare I say only one team. Heh can't wait for the season! :)

Raja
08-24-2010, 10:16 PM
The thing is im not taking Rinne or Green over Malkin or Luongo no matter how real their values are.


I believe that's exactly the point of the real value. Getting Rinne later and being just as valuable as those studs is better than drafting guys with high perceived value way early. It doesn't apply as much to studs who people know are good as opposed to solid depth players with hidden value.

alias
08-24-2010, 10:22 PM
I doubt the Bruins are going to be fighting for anything other than the #2 seed in the East. The NE is arguably worse than the SE this year, and the Bruins should win the division handily.

BTW, I'm not saying that Rask shouldn't be one of the first goalies taken in a one year league, but he's the only top-tier guy that will see significant competition from his backup. Luongo, Miller, Lundqvist, MAF, and Brodeur will see zero competition.

Maybe I'm just conservative, but I would rather go with a guy that is guaranteed 70+ starts than a guy that could sit the bench for an entire week if his backup is playing well.

MAF isn't guaranteed for 70+ starts. He had 66 starts last year, which is the highest of his career. I can see Rask getting 60 with Thomas getting 22. I just think MAF is over rated. His best season where he played more than 40 games he had 35 wins 2.67GAA .912sv% and 4 shutouts. I'll take a risk on Rask before settling on those numbers from MAF this early in the draft.

Zangetsu
08-24-2010, 10:35 PM
While, MAF isn't a lock to start 70+ games, Rask isn't even a lock to be the starter for the Bruins. He's the favorite (and probably a big one), but there's no doubt with the other guys.

As I said, I might just be more conservative than most, but I don't like the risk of having a former Vezina trophy winner (who played most of last year injured, as it turns out) as the backup to my #1 starter. There's also the sophomore jinx, although I think Rask is talented enough and has the right mentality to avoid the jinx, but it is just one more risk that I'd rather avoid.

Skate or Die
08-24-2010, 11:25 PM
Rask was #1 in GAA & sv% last year with 5 shutouts in only 45 games. He now is the #1 guy. The only cat MAF should do better in is wins, but he'll play about 5 or so more games. Of the ones you listed Vokoun is the only one who would make me think twice. And JDD....really?

edit: damn looking at MAF's numbers from last year he did worse than I thought. Yeah he had 37 wins (.56win%/66starts) but a 2.65GAA, .905sv% and only 1 shutout. Rask had 22 wins (.56win%/39 starts) 1.97GAA, 9.31sv% & 5 shutouts
Other than the Ovechkins of the world, its just too dangerous using your first 3 rounders on guys with only one good year under their belts, especially goalies. Pascal Leclaire and Steve Mason come to mind. Its all downside risk, and a fairly significant amount at that. Let someone else take that risk. Don't plant that bomb on your team.

JDD man, he's taking the Oilers places. :lol:


edit: and even further risk with a $5 million recent Vezina winner backing him up. Just don't go there!

edit again: apparently I just plagiarized Z

Skate or Die
08-24-2010, 11:36 PM
I doubt the Bruins are going to be fighting for anything other than the #2 seed in the East. The NE is arguably worse than the SE this year, and the Bruins should win the division handily.

BTW, I'm not saying that Rask shouldn't be one of the first goalies taken in a one year league, but he's the only top-tier guy that will see significant competition from his backup. Luongo, Miller, Lundqvist, MAF, and Brodeur will see zero competition.

Maybe I'm just conservative, but I would rather go with a guy that is guaranteed 70+ starts than a guy that could sit the bench for an entire week if his backup is playing well.
How the heck does Kipper get no love??? He had better numbers than Luongo.

Zangetsu
08-24-2010, 11:39 PM
Haha, no disrespect intended.

As bad as the Flames were last year, Kipper put up very good numbers. At this point, I put him in the same league as Vokoun. He's a very good goalie on a bad team.

Will the Flames be better this year? Probably (maybe? hopefully?). Still, Luongo is a very good goalie, and I have the Canucks as the favorites to win the West.

Skate or Die
08-24-2010, 11:42 PM
The way things are going so far, Datsyuk might be the steal of many drafts. The second round is where I think you want to pick your centre this year. All of Datsyuk, Thornton, Getzlaf and Sedin are going to be there. Heck, if you get a non Crosby/Backstrom/Malkin high draft pick, you can probably get one of those guys on the swing in 3.

I really don't want to be forced into picking Crosby/Backstrom/Malkin at 2/3/4 this year.

The first overall draft pick is realllllllly valuable this year. Ovechkin-Datsyuk-Kipper...*drool*

Can't wait for some mock drafting to test this out.

Skate or Die
08-24-2010, 11:43 PM
Haha, no disrespect intended.

As bad as the Flames were last year, Kipper put up very good numbers. At this point, I put him in the same league as Vokoun. He's a very good goalie on a bad team.

Will the Flames be better this year? Probably (maybe? hopefully?). Still, Luongo is a very good goalie, and I have the Canucks as the favorites to win the West.No doubt. You've gotta pencil the 'nucks in there, as well as Luongo well above Kipper. I'm just saying that I Kipper belongs in that first tier, even if its at the bottom of it.

mixxxx17
10-15-2010, 02:35 PM
T\I want to upgrade my Center position and am tryig to figure out who I can get for Rick Nash. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

Cornholio
10-16-2010, 06:17 AM
Not easy...
Maybe Zetterberg.
Or try for Malkin; as long as he's "cold".

StrongArmSu
10-20-2010, 07:52 AM
IMO, it's not a great time to trade Nash away. With only 1 goal so far this year, his value is a bit low. If anything, Id wait until he has back to back multi point games...then try shopping him.

jeffoule
08-25-2011, 01:44 PM
Looking forward to see this thread updated :)